Can India still qualify for WTC final? Here's the scenario after MCG loss

India’s path to the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final took a significant hit after a demoralizing 184-run loss to Australia in the Melbourne Test. This defeat has dropped India’s points percentage (PCT) from 55.89 to 52.77, relegating Rohit Sharma’s team to third place in the standings with 114 points from 18 matches. The team’s record in the 2023-25 WTC cycle stands at nine wins, seven losses, and two draws.

Australia, on the other hand, have strengthened their bid for a second consecutive WTC final appearance. With their 10th win in the cycle, Pat Cummins and his team have raised their PCT to 61.45, further solidifying their second-place position behind South Africa.

South Africa became the first team to qualify for the WTC final after defeating Pakistan in Centurion. The Proteas, with a PCT of 66.67, have ensured their spot in the summit clash, scheduled at Lord’s Cricket Ground in June 2025. For India, the final Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Sydney, beginning January 3, becomes a must-win encounter. A loss or draw would knock India out of contention for the WTC final.

If India manages to level the series 2-2 by winning in Sydney, they will still need Sri Lanka to sweep their two-match series against Australia. This scenario would push India’s PCT to 55.26, narrowly edging out Australia’s 54.26. However, even a single draw for Australia against Sri Lanka would see them secure a spot in the final over India.

The updated WTC standings are as follows:

1. South Africa (Q): PCT 66.67
2. Australia: PCT 61.45
3. India: PCT 52.77
4. New Zealand: PCT 48.21
5. Sri Lanka: PCT 45.45
6. England: PCT 43.18
7. Bangladesh: PCT 31.25
8. Pakistan: PCT 30.30
9. West Indies: PCT 24.24