Canada prepares for surge in asylum seekers following Trump’s victory and tougher U.S. immigration policies

Canada is bracing for an increase in asylum-seekers following the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president, a result that has raised concerns regarding his immigration policies, particularly his plan to enforce mass deportations. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) and immigration officials have been preparing for months in anticipation of a potential surge in asylum claims. The U.S. policies under Trump’s leadership, including deportation orders for undocumented immigrants, are expected to drive more individuals to seek refuge in Canada, particularly along the Quebec-New York border. RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier confirmed the heightened alert, noting that resources may be allocated to patrol the border and monitor potential illegal crossings.

In 2017, during Trump’s first presidency, thousands of asylum-seekers crossed into Canada from the U.S. through unofficial entry points like Roxham Road, which lies on the Quebec-New York border. Many individuals avoided formal border crossings to file refugee claims in Canada. In response to this, Canada and the U.S. implemented a revision of the Safe Third Country Agreement in 2022, which expanded the agreement’s scope to cover the entire 4,000-mile border. As a result, asylum-seekers attempting to cross anywhere other than official border points are turned away, unless they meet a narrow exemption. The agreement aimed to curb the flow of illegal crossings by limiting asylum-seekers' ability to claim refugee status at informal border areas.

Despite these increased restrictions, many migrants continue to attempt entry through unofficial channels, including rural areas or remote borderlands, bypassing the formal checkpoints. Immigrant advocates have emphasized that these dangerous crossings, often conducted in harsh weather conditions, are being made due to the lack of accessible and legitimate pathways for asylum seekers. Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal, explained that when official pathways are closed or inaccessible, asylum-seekers are left with no choice but to risk illegal border crossings. While the process to cross into Canada from the U.S. has become more complicated and dangerous, there is concern that many people will continue to attempt this journey in search of safety.

In 2024, Canada saw a dramatic rise in refugee claims. Data from the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) reveals that in July, nearly 20,000 people filed refugee claims, marking the highest number of monthly claims on record. While the numbers dropped to around 16,400 claims in September, the overall number of asylum applications remains elevated. The IRB reports that there are currently over 250,000 claims pending, causing significant strain on Canada’s immigration system. The increased influx of asylum claims has led to extended wait times for applicants, with some waiting for months or years to receive a decision. The Immigration and Refugee Board has had difficulty keeping up with the surge, leading to delays in processing claims and a backlog of cases that could worsen with the anticipated influx of refugees in the coming months.

Canada's attempts to tighten immigration controls have led to unintended consequences, with smugglers capitalizing on the situation. Organized smuggling networks are charging higher fees to assist migrants in crossing into Canada, either overland or through airports. These criminal networks are profiting from the increased demand for irregular entry, exploiting vulnerable individuals. Smuggling activities have become a growing challenge for both Canadian law enforcement and immigration authorities. The government’s efforts to address smuggling and reduce illegal migration have been complicated by the surge in demand for alternative routes into Canada.

In response to the anticipated rise in refugee claims, Canada’s immigration system is under significant pressure to adapt. The Canadian government has stated that it has prepared plans to deal with the increased number of asylum-seekers, although specific details of these measures have not been publicly disclosed. Immigration Minister Marc Miller affirmed that the government’s approach will prioritize the safety and well-being of both Canadian citizens and those seeking refuge. Local refugee organizations, such as the FCJ Refugee Centre in Toronto, are already assisting dozens of asylum-seekers each week, a number that is expected to rise as winter approaches.

While Canada is working to manage the situation, the ongoing crisis highlights the vulnerability of asylum-seekers who risk their lives to reach safety. In 2022, a tragic incident occurred when a family of four died of hypothermia while attempting to cross the border into Canada near Emerson, Manitoba. Advocates are calling for an increase in the number of legal pathways for refugees to safely enter Canada to avoid further such tragedies. Canada’s federal government is likely to continue strengthening its response infrastructure, including increasing the capacity of refugee services and improving coordination between federal, provincial, and local authorities. However, the situation remains fluid, with ongoing political and logistical challenges in responding to a potentially overwhelming number of new arrivals. Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB), border control authorities, and asylum centers are expected to be under significant pressure in the coming months.